Who Will Win the Presidential Election?
Bookies, statisticians say Obama will win a second term. Polls indicate race still close.
An Irish betting house is so sure President Obama will win reelection, they have already started paying off those who bet on him to win.
According to Irish Central, the bookmaker says Mitt Romney gave it a good shot, but has no chance of winning.
"Romney gave it a good shot and is doing well in the popular vote, but we suspect he's had his moment in the sun and is likely to be remembered more for his legendary gaffes than presidential potential,” a spokeswoman for the betting house told Irish Central. "The overall betting trend has shown one way traffic for Obama and punters seem to have called it 100 percent correct."
Not only do the bookies favor Obama, some number crunchers do as well.
In an article for the Atlantic Wire, Gabriel Snyder explained there are exactly 512 possible outcomes for the election and Obama wins in 84.2 percent of them.
Snyder’s assessment is based on the assumption that only nine states are currently up for grabs.
“The presidential candidate who gets 270 or more electoral votes will be the next President. We know the outcome of the vast majority of those 51 contests: New York, California, and Hawaii, and so on, will award their electoral votes to Obama, while Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, etc., will award their electoral votes to Romney. In these 41 'known' races, Obama has a huge lead over Romney: 237 electoral votes to 191,” Snyder wrote.
In the nine toss-up states, there are 110 Electoral College votes up for grab and Obama only needs 33 of them.
“As a mathematical exercise, Romney has just 76 paths to victory out of the 512 possible combinations,” Snyder concluded.
Statistician Nate Silver also believes the numbers support Obama. In a recent post, Silver puts Obama’s chances of winning the election at 86 percent based in part on Hurricane Sandy.
“Already, some analysts are describing the storm as an ‘October surprise’ that allowed Mr. Obama to regain his footing after stumbling badly in the first presidential debate and struggling to get back on course,” Silver wrote. “Some Republicans seem prepared to blame a potential defeat for Mitt Romney on the storm, and the embrace of Mr. Obama by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and other public officials.”
Since the storm hit, Obama’s reelection chances have improved from 73 to 86 percent according to Silver’s analysis, though he disputes the entire gain is storm-related.
So does Romney have a chance?
The Nov. 4 Rasmussen daily tracking poll shows Romney and Obama tied with support from 49 percent of voters nationwide, but believes the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate on election day will be the deciding factor.
“If the white turnout increases on Election Day, it will be very difficult for the president to win. If it decreases, it will be very difficult for him to lose. Rasmussen Reports currently estimates that white turnout will be similar to the 2008 totals. Black voters, however, are far more likely to have voted already than any other segment of the electorate,” Rasmussen reported.
Rasmussen projections also show Obama with a 237-209 lead in the Electoral College with 95 votes described as a toss-up.
Pew Research is giving a 48-45 edge to Obama.
“The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates, based on several indicators and opinions,” the press release stated.
At this point, who do you think will win the election? Let us know in the comments.
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