BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY NEAR CAT ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...WIND FIELD EXPANDING...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MOVE
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. CAT
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 969 MB...
28.61 INCHES.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY PASSING NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
...WIND FIELD CONTINUING TO EXPAND...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco, who coined the nickname Frankenstorm, said: "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."

Government forecasters said there is a 90 percent chance -- up from 60 percent two days earlier -- that the East will get pounded.

From a NE meteorologist:

We all need to realize that anything could happen in this scenario and the current status of the storm is not that strong a clue since no model anticipated anything different from this status at 06z Friday, now it may well eventuate that Chad Myers will seem to have over-reacted come Tuesday, or this may be forgotten in the wake of an unfolding disaster. Time will tell. I cannot see any other alternative than to convey a high risk of a major impact event but to add that nothing is settled yet. Let people make their own minds up from that realistic assessment.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012

...HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD HIGH
WINDS/HEAVY RAINS/HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...

continued...

THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED
UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(PARTICULARLY THE 00Z ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND
WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST
(EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE) EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (CANADIAN,
GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS WITH
TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS, INCLUDING (BUT NOT
EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012, ISAAC 2012, DEBBY 2012 IN THE WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, IRENE 2011, AND IGOR 2010. EVEN THE
PERFECT/HALLOWEEN STORM OF 1991 "ONLY" BOTTOMED OUT AT 972 HPA,
AND THIS FORECAST WAS ALLOWED TO EXCEED THAT SYSTEM WITHOUT GOING
OVERBOARD. PRESSURES FOR THE STORM WERE CAPPED AROUND 965 HPA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND ALLOWED TO WEAKEN ONCE
INLAND.

... continued

PER THIS SOLUTION, FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY), LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE COAST,
PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA HEAD PATTERN TO FALL ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA/EASTERN OHIO;
LIKELY NOT TO THE EXTREME DEGREE SEEN WITHIN ANY OF THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR.

If the models are right about this scenario the fireworks should start today, with things really getting going tonight as the sub-tropical jet and polar jet come together.

It's the Bride of Guy Sharpe Spooktacular!

Not a very pretty presentation this morning.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us.php

Buoy Data here... click on Gulf of Mexico/East Florida
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_buoy_gom_2.php

Sandy page... watch the 4 image down, it's an animated image showing the last 48 hours of Sandy from a microwave point of view, really cool
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sandy.php

The transition has to extra tropical is underway. Sandy is still a formidable cyclone and the 'appearance' will likely be rather impressive over the next several days. Gale force winds extend well away from the center well expand in the days ahead.

Just uploaded two new images of the 12Z runs showing track and intensity. The models keep showing a more westward turn. We'll see as the day goes on.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 76.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

The 11am forecast track map shows Sandy over land as a sub-tropical system on Tuesday... but with hurricane force winds. Very unusual.

NGW, thank you for keeping us updated. I have family on the coast.

You're very welcome. Where are they located? As it is right now, it's looking like Sandy will make landfall somewhere just south of New Jersey in Delaware and Maryland.

From the Huntsville NWS... just a sample of what's coming for us!

COLD FRONT ON SCHEDULE...CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWEST AL WITH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT /16Z OB/ AT MUSCLE SHOALS WAS 72 DEGREES WHILE CORINTH MS HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 54.

48º in Memphis and 76º in Huntsville right now

ULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY WEAKENS A LITTLE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 77.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN
REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

Just wanted to stop and say thanks for the usual outstanding weather reporting. You always do a great job with the play by play. You would make Guy Sharp proud.

Reminds me of a song... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgFHM8HMbWQ

Thanks guys!

Voluntary for now and then on Sunday mandatory evacuations on Cape May County barrier islands.

Go here, click on "Loop" next to "Visible". This is a great loop showing Sandy and the approaching cold front to our west. You will need Java enabled on your computer.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us.php

Anyone headed to Boone NC?

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
BREEZY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY WINDY.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. LOWS
AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM GREAT ABACO...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 77.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO ST AUGUSTINE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE DROPPING BELOW
HURRICANE STATUS. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT PENDING
THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR A 0000
UTC CENTER FIX. THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE THE NHC
FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE
PRESUMABLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREACST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT SANDY COULD TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3
TO 4 DAYS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SLOW AND...IN FACT...RECENT
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER.

Here are the forecast positions and winds. Notice how Sandy weakens and then right before landfall, regains strength up to 80 mph. That increase in strength is due to the baroclinic interaction that it will be going through. This storm is going to be very interesting to watch as it starts that interaction process. Anyone along the coast from Virginia northward needs to make preparations for what will be a storm for the record books.

INIT 26/2100Z 27.3N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 29.7N 76.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 31.3N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 33.1N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 37.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 39.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z 41.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Here's a great explanation of what should happen...
http://goesrnatcentperspective.wordpress.com/2012/10/26/what-to-do-with-sandy-pt-iii-the-saga-continues/

From another meteorologist up north:

"One of the things that hasn't gotten much attention is the wind potential for areas west of the Apps, especially for folks living near the lakes. If the models are to be believed then anyone living near the shore of Erie, Ontario and maybe Huron will be prone to sustained winds around 40-50 mph and gusts in the 60-75 mph range."

From the Atlanta NWS office :

FOR US THE BIGGER STORY REMAINS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
DRAGGED INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WELL.. NOT JUST ALOFT BUT THROUGH THE ENTIRE LAYER...

ECMWF HAS 45KT (about 52 mph) AT 850MB (about 5000 feet) MONDAY NIGHT AND GFS UP TO 50KT TUESDAY NIGHT/. NEW ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN COOLER THAN MEX AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER VALUES...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY MORE LIKE THOSE IN JANUARY.

MAY SEE SOME WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT AS THE TIME APPROACHES.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WAS 77F IN HUNTSVILLE AT 19Z (3pm) WHILE IT WAS
50F IN CORINTH MS /JUST 120 MILES SEPARATING THE TWO LOCATIONS.

Someone is getting snow from this!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA...TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH...WEBSTER COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WILL START LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...
CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. UNTREATED ROADS MAY
BECOME VERY SLICK ACROSS THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOWER 30S UPPER VALLEYS...RANGING TO THE
UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

From a meteorologist in Miami:

"It's dry, windy, and quite chilly in Miami (for our standards). In fact it has gotten windier as the day has gone on, with the winds currently as strong as they have been at any time during the Sandy's pass (outside of the heaviest outer bands). Tonight we may dip below 70 degrees for the first time since April 26th!

That seems to suggest that Sandy is pulling in increasingly cooler and drier air, and that the wind field is expanding. It appears that Sandy's interaction with the subtropical jet helped to speed up extratropical transition. However, as others have said, it has not lost its warm core, and it will not lose its warm core until it is very close to landfall. So even with the big comma cloud, Sandy is still worthy of tropical or subtropical designation."

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY WEAKENS BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE STORM WITH
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

Areas currently under a State of Emergency: NY, PA, MD, DC, VA and eastern NC.

Time to go play in the snow!!! :-))

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
508 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA...TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

• LOCATIONS...POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH...WEBSTER COUNTIES.
• HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
• SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 14 INCHES. (I think more like 2 feet)
• WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
• TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY
41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY
THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

For people in SC and NC

...WINDS...
AS SANDY APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEAST COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
BEACHES FROM NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH SOUTHWARD TO BALD HEAD
ISLAND IN NORTH CAROLINA AND FROM GARDEN CITY SOUTHWARD TO
GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA. EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED
ALONG ALL EAST FACING BEACHES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 2 TO
4 FEET OF SURGE INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS EVENING...AND THE
HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

For us here in Georgia:

BIGGEST IMPACT WE WILL SEE FROM ALL THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE INCREASED WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA TODAY AND STAYS THAT WAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS GET UP INTO THE
10-15KT RANGE TODAY WITH GUST NEAR 25KT (almost 30mph). THE GUST WILL SUBSIDE OVER
NIGHT AND THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
NOT NEED A WIND ADVISORY TODAY...BUT AS THINGS PROGRESS INTO SUN AND
MON THAT MAY CHANGE DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.

WITH THIS COLD FRONT MOVING IN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS SUN IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE REALLY COLD AIR MASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY WITH LOWS EXPECTED MON MORNING TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GET DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS N GA.

continued...

MAX TEMPS WILL
NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT
WILL SEEM MUCH COLDER AS IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY
SEE OUR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME AREAS
IN THE MOUNTAINS SEE THE MID AND UPPER 20S. H8 WINDS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 40 TO 50KT RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY/WARNING.

Well... the NHC downgraded Sandy to a tropical storm, and have now re-upgraded (is that a word?) Sandy back to a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AGAIN...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Great early morning views of Sandy:
US View: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/goes_us_sat_am.jpg
SE View: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/goes_se_sat_am.jpg

Food for thought...

None of the models have correctly predicted (not even close) the current pressures we're seeing in the storm. This could be a cause for concern as time goes on. Sandy has rapidly gained strength this morning, dropping 12mb in pressure over 7 hours.

Mandatory evacuations have begun up north.
A mandatory evacuation has been ordered of all Town of Islip communities located on Fire Island ahead of Hurricane Sandy.
http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=weather&id=8860224

I'm going to post this next one in pieces... very detailed analysis and very foreboding...

Historic storm system heading for the mid Atlantic and NE US.

Potentially life threatening destructive storm surge event for the New Jersey and New York coasts.

Discussion:
The transition of Sandy from a pure tropical cyclone toward more of mid-latitude cyclone has begun. Sandy is still located near the northern Bahamas this morning, but satellite and radar images along with recon data suggest that the system has made the expected turn toward the NNE and this motion should continue with an increase in forward speed. Aircraft data also shows the wind field is greatly expanding with TS force winds extending outward 435 miles from the center with the highest winds located across the western and northwestern flank of the circulation where sporadic deep convection is found.
...continued

... continued from above
Across the north Atlantic and the US, the upper air pattern continues to “block” with massive high pressure building over eastern Canada and a strong trough (our cold front) pressing into the eastern US. A shortwave over the western states this morning will swing through the base of the main trough and tilt it from SE to NW over the SE and mid Atlantic starting tomorrow. Sandy will become captured by this titling and instead of pushed out to sea, make a hard left turn (NW) back toward the US mid-Atlantic and NE US coast between the trough to her SW and the blocking high to her NE. Global guidance is in very good agreement on this pattern and in fact has very little spread in the track solution given the complex interactions that will be in place. Models show Sandy moving NW to WNW toward the New Jersey coast and making landfall Monday night or Tuesday morning and then slowing down as she moves inland.

continued....

continued...

As for intensity, Sandy is gradually taking on more and more mid latitude influences although her center core remains “warm” or tropical. Jet stream phasing with the system is starting to occur with temperature gradient developing on her outer flanks of the large circulation. As Sandy moves northward this process will intensify has the warm Caribbean air mass clashes with a very cold polar air mass resulting in strong baroclinic intensification. Sandy will also be located in the favorable region of the trough and jet stream axis to promote surface deepening of a cyclone. Models continue to advertise “incredibly” low pressures with the ECMWF showing a record 942mb low near landfall on the New Jersey coast which is an astounding 30mb lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm and 6mb lower than anything ever recorded in the NE US.
Given the continued very good model agreement on both track and the forecasted extreme low pressures, confidence is building that an extremely rare powerful storm system will impact the NE and mid-Atlantic coast from Sunday-Thursday.

continued...

Impacts:
Major travel disruption is likely as numerous major E coast airports will not be able to sustain operations and this will have ripple effects across the nation. Additionally, widespread power outages and down trees will greatly hamper surface and rail travel across the entire region with widespread and potentially prolonged impacts to commerce.

This will be a long duration multi-day event with prolonged impacts over the entire area from North Carolina to Canada and extending inland into the OH valley affecting some 55-65 million people.

continued...

continued...

Coastal flooding or storm surge flooding appears to be significant especially for the New Jersey and New York (NYC and Long Island) coasts. The angle of approach this storm will be taking from (SE to NW) strikes the coast at a right angle instead of the usual grazing by of the coast most storms in this region take (SW to NE or parallel to the coast). This direct hit on the coast will drive onshore winds and massive amounts of Atlantic seawater toward the central and northern New Jersey coast and into the “L” shaped New York Bight area of southern New York City and western Long Island (a worst case track for this area, that has never occurred before with this strong of a storm system). The fetch of wind across the entire north Atlantic will drive large waves and surge to the coast and this will last for several high tide cycles. Tides will be at their maximum due to the full moon on Monday. Massive beach erosion is likely with coastal structures experiences significant damage many to the point of total collapse. Seawater inundation will be extensive and widespread and long lasting and in some places potentially record setting. Due to the rare track of this storm, some locations that have never before experienced coastal flooding, may flood with this event.

... continued

Winds of 50-60mph with gust to 70-80mph will battered a wide area for 24-48 hours. Expect widespread tree damage and power outages which could rival some of the largest power outages ever in the US. The prolonged nature of the event will result in trees giving way over time as the ground saturates from the heavy rainfall. Winds will be higher in an near tall high rise buildings where funneling will take place. Structure damage will be mainly from trees falling into buildings and to roofs from the wind itself.
Rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches will be common over a very large area with totals of 8-12 inches over New Jersey into southern PA and New York. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible as the tropical moisture from Sandy’s air mass crashes into the eastern slopes of the mountains and a stalled frontal boundary. Rainfall of this magnitude over an area of steep terrain will produce life threatening flash flooding and major river flooding.

... continued

Ocean seas will be building to staggering heights over the next few days. Already buoys north of the Bahamas have been reporting 30 foot seas, and Wave Watch III guidance is maxed out at 42-48 foot seas over the NW Atlantic Ocean by early next week. The expanding area of strong winds of 50-60mph and the massive fetch of wind all the way from Europe will produce very large swells. Would not be surprised to see reports of wave greater than 50-60 feet over the NW Atlantic. Some of this wave action and energy will be directed toward the US coastline and this will worsen the beach erosion. Large wave setup will also trap water levels near the coast and worsen the coastal flooding threat.

On the extreme SW flank of the storm heavy wet snow will fall over parts of OH and WV with totals of 1-2 feet possible.

Power outages will likely last for 1-2 weeks or longer
Large scale evacuation orders for the New Jersey coast will be underway today with portions of New York also likely requiring evacuation due to the potential for coastal storm surge inundation.

Just so people fully understand, much of what is being forecast to happen is uncharted territory. NOTHING like this has never happened before (in recorded history). Many meteorologist will admit they too are learning just as we are, how this system will evolve over the next 5 days.

Here comes the kicker. Entering the western US is a very fast 130 knot + jet stream that is riding southeast toward us. This "kicker" will cause the negative tilt to the approaching trough and kick Sandy back to the northwest. The jet will also combine with Sandy to make the "perfect storm".
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/300mb_sf.gif

I don't know, has he drowned before? :-)

A ship report from 148 miles due east of Georgia, shows 60 mph winds and seas of 24 feet with a 6 second period. Wouldn't want to be on that ship.

Latest recon shows a 12mb pressure drop since the 5am report. Sandy apparently likes where she's at. That is truly an astounding drop and not expected.

And the reason as explained by a meteorologist:

Weak baroclinic enhancement (there is a bit of a thickness gradient across the storm, believe it or not), strong divergence aloft from the jet streak to the southeast and undoubtedly some warm-core deepening from convection over the center.

Two personal weather station sites that I'll be following as Sandy approaches are:
http://www.relayweather.com/
http://somdweather.com/

These sites are much like my own and report their data very frequently... less than 30 seconds. They both have webcams and both have the latest watches and warnings for their area.

Once Sandy goes ashore, one site I'll be watching in central New York is http://www.cnyweather.com/ Another site complete with webcams so you can see what's going on.

t

Governor Christie ‏@GovChristie
This morning I signed an EO declaring a state of emergency for all of NJ ahead of #Sandy.

Governor Christie @GovChristie
I am also calling for mandatory evac. starting at 4pm Sunday for barrier islands, from Sandy Hook South to Cape May, including AC casinos.

Surge forecast from the NHC (at least for now):

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

Gov. Dannel Malloy has declared a state of emergency in Connecticut.

From a respected meteorologist...

"Public safety implication here is that GFS signals major disaster potential NJ, se NY and CT, rainfall high impacts for PA. This solution pushes the snowstorm concept to the southern margins of the precip wraparound albeit very heavy potential there.

Frankly these are looking like thousand-year return maps."

From my meteorologist buddy Robert Gamble:

"Not only October snow records will fall, but perhaps some all time snow records could fall in some parts of West Virginia, where up to 4 feet of total snow could fall. The snow and wind will cause massive power outages in parts of the Appalachians and even though surface temperatures aren't terribly cold, this may fall into a practical blizzard of nearly unprecedented proportions, rivaling the Great Appalachian November 1950 storm."

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 75.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...122 KM/H.

Tropical Storm force winds http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/wind_field.gif
Rainfall Estimates Days 1-5 - http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/Rainfall_Days_1-5.gif

Latest from the Atlanta NWS office:

THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING P-TYPE FOLLOWING. TOMORROW THE WINDS PICK UP IN EARNEST AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES...AND WE START SEEING 30-40KT 925MB WINDS ALONG WITH 40 TO NEAR 50KT 850MB WINDS...FIRST ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20MPH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH IN SOME AREAS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS PEAKS EVEN HIGHER.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A ROUND OF MOISTURE THAT WRAPPED AROUND FROM SANDY. BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE EXTREME LOWEST LEVELS WHICH KEEPS THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE -10C THRESHOLD FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG NNW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO GET THE MOISTURE TO THE CRITICAL LEVEL.

HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. DO HAVE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT SO A FREEZE WATCH OR POSSIBLY WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY A FROST ADVISORY IN OTHER AREAS... THOUGH IF WINDS STAY UP FROST MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME FORMING/...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.

Well at least we now all know what a REAL "Overseas Contingency Operation" looks like ...

BREAKING NOW: Massachusetts becomes 8th state to declare State of Emergency ahead of Sandy.

States under a State of Emergency:
MA, MD, VA, NY, NJ, CT, PA & 40 counties in NC

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 75.2W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...
94 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

WXsouth.com - Snowfall rates of 2" to 3" per hour in West Virginia Tuesday. The rate of fall and leaves on trees....plus wind, big big trouble.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD WHILE HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SURGE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

If you understand statistics, this will have a significant meaning for you...

THE 00Z ECMWF & 00Z GFS MODELS ARE CLOSEST TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL WITH SANDY ARE EXTREME/IMPRESSIVE
FROM THE GET-GO, RUNNING A RARELY-SEEN SIX SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER NEAR THE 30TH PARALLEL AT THE INITIAL TIME STEP,
STRONGLY SUGGESTING A RECORD EVENT IS UNDERWAY. A COMPROMISE OF
THE TWO WILL LEAD TO A REASONABLE COMPROMISE ALOFT, WHERE THE 00Z
GFS HAS MUCH LOWER 500 HPA HEIGHTS (ON THE ORDER OF 5220 METERS)
THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE (THOUGH ITS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES NEAR ITS CENTER IN MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA REMAIN
WITHIN FOUR SIGMAS OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER SO IT CANNOT BE
DISMISSED), INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH CAN BIAS IN THE DEEP
DIRECTION. CONSULT LATEST NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING SANDY.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

8mb drop in pressure since the 5am reading. The interaction with the upper level jet has begun and Sandy should continue to gain strength for the next 48 hours. This is gonna get wicked now. This image shows how the 500 mb winds (~18,000 feet) are now interacting with Sandy.
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/500mb_sf.gif

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES...835 KM. A SHIP LOCTAED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE.
ALSO...NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

This was shortly after midnight when this was posted... and she's only going to get stronger...

"Even though the pressure hasn't dropped Sandy has been intensifying in the sense that the wind field is expanding. Sandy now has the largest Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of any tropical cyclone in history, 222 terajoules (one trillion joules, 10^12). This gives it tremendous surge and wave potential."

Delaware ordered mandatory evacuations for coastal communities by 8 p.m. Sunday.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE
BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW
JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND
RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 32.5N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 34.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 36.4N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 40.1N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z 41.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 46.6N 73.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Great webcam on Virginia Beach http://www.vbbound.com/webcam/watermans-boardwalk-cam/

New blog post... http://dacula.patch.com/blog_posts/sandy-worst-case-scenario

Mayor Bloomberg: Mandatory evacuation of Zone A in NYC. All public schools will be closed tomorrow.