Do I sell or do I stay? This question was just emailed to me from a Dacula homeowner who I have corresponded with over the past few weeks. He wrote the following:
We're still deciding on our timing as I think we might be 60-90 days out, as we still have to list and sell ours.
However, I'm on the fence of when to list ours. Here is why, I have read (in my research) that statistically Oct-Dec is the worst time. However, I'm seeing that inventory is very low and foreclosures are at a 5 year low and that if your house is priced right it will sell.
Again on the flip side, I've also read that shadow inventory hasn't been released yet from the banks and if they do it could be a game changer. It has been reported that Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac own approximately 35% of all foreclosed properties. It has also been reported that approximately 33% of the homes they own are not on the market.
What are your thoughts on all of this? Agree/disagree?
This is a great question by someone who likes to do their research! My response is that in my opinion, traditional stats in terms of “selling season” should be thrown out the window.
Historically summer was the big selling season. With the advent of short sales and distressed properties what I see is that the “selling season” is lasting all year around. Sure, January-June is the peak for the year. I sell 55 percent of the homes I sell in those months of the year each year. In July I find it the slowest as most people are vacationing, and August is a runner up to July in that school starts back and that is the focus of most families with school aged kids, but then it picks up again. I personally closed seven (7) homes in September and have another five (5) lined up to close this month! It really doesn’t slow down again until the week of Thanksgiving and the last two weeks of the year. I think that it is therefore a good time to list your home because inventory numbers are so low. If you wait until early Spring of next year inventory naturally will start building again.
Right now homes that are listed for sale are moving! My last two listings both went under contract within the first three weeks of being listed. Both Sellers got 96-97 percent of list price! I am seeing home showings at a high as some of my listings are getting shown on average about 3-4 times per week to almost once a day in some locations!
Regarding questions of “Shadow Inventory,” Core Logic just issued a report entitled, “Declines in Shadow Inventory Foreshadow Rise in Prices.” In it they note that current residential shadow inventory as of July 2012 fell to 2.3 million units, representing a supply of six months. This was a 10.2 percent drop from July 2011, when shadow inventory stood at 2.6 million units, which is approximately the same level the country was experiencing in March 2009. Currently, the flow of new seriously delinquent (90 days or more) loans into the shadow inventory has been roughly offset by the equal volume of distressed (short and real estate owned) sales.
It was noted within the report, “Broadly speaking, the shadow inventory continued to shrink in July,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The reduction is being driven by a variety of resolution approaches. This is yet another hopeful sign that the housing market is slowly healing. The decline in shadow inventory has recently moderated reflecting the lower outflow of distressed sales over the past year,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
Regarding REOs or Fannie and Freddie and what they currently own, I love the recent Wall Street Journal article entitled, Five Questions: Why Home Prices Are Rising, where the WSJ addresses some of the questions and concerns. The good is that with shadow inventory and bank owned homes at levels about 24 percent lower than a year ago prices are moving up. Stan Humphries, Chief Economist with Zillow.com stated recently that he sees a bottom! He sees a long and protracted bottom that may last 2-4 years, but he states that he sees price “appreciation” over that time period of 1-2 percent annually. Okay, long time since we heard that word “appreciation,” but I am hearing it again.
My personal experience shows that from 2009-2011 the percentage of sales that I had some part in were about 75-85 percent distressed properties. This year the figure is about 50/50 between distressed sales and non-distressed sales. This is another good sign.
Another article from Inman News regarding shrinking inventory and how it has bolstered housing prices came out recently here.
The exciting thing is to look around at media anywhere online and you see over and over again this theme that prices are moving up finally.
One good example is a home I had recently listed in Hamilton Mill in Dacula. Other Realtors had told the Seller that they could not hope to get a sales price more than $315k on their particular property. I looked at the comps, considered the market, and we listed it for $340,000. Within a month we had two (2) offers in excess of $330,000! There was another listing in Hamilton Mill. Same story, local company told the Seller they would not get more than mid-$150ks on this property. We listed for $172,000 and within 60 days got a contract and closed for $169,000!
How do we do it? Check out this Digital Advanced Marketing Presentation that shows how to not only market your home for sale, but get maximum value!
Finally, look at these Criteria for Selecting a Listing Agent for your house! I think you will enjoy finding out how to choose the right agent to represent you.
Feel free to call Hank Bailey at (678) 252-9257, email to hankbailey@prudentialgeorgia.com or follow @PrudentialGARE on twitter.
Click here to view every home on the market for sale in Dacula and visit my new website www.hankbailey.prudentialgeorgia.com to create an advanced MLS search including foreclosures, short sales, new construction, and by schools!
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