It looks like we'll finally get some rain back in the picture for the start of the work week. Computer models are forecasting a low pressure system to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and potentially bring 2-3" of rain over the north Georgia area on Monday and Tuesday.
Later today we'll start to see an easterly flow of moisture off of the Atlantic that will provide showers in southeast-east Georgia. By tomorrow, the flow will be from the southeast as the high pressure system that has kept us sunny and dry for the last week shifts off into the Atlantic, and we'll start to see our chances for rain increasing ahead of an approaching shortwave due to orographic lifting of the air mass.
Our best chances for rain will come on Monday and Tuesday as the low pressure that will form in the Gulf will move NE and bring with it very good chances for rain. Isentropic lift will cause warm moist air to override the cooler air at the surface and provide showers and thundershowers late Sunday into Monday morning. The cooler air at the surface will finally begin to leave on Monday and bands of thundershowers and embedded thunderstorms will rotate through our area during the day on Monday and Tuesday.
Do you like fall weather? Get ready... after the rain moves out of our area late Tuesday, temperatures take a tumble with models showing highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the next several days.
We still need the rain as the drought monitor still shows us in an extreme to exceptional drought area. We would need 9-12" of rainfall (last image on the drought monitor page) to break the drought that we're in and we're not going to be getting that kind of rainfall anytime soon.
So enjoy the nice weather for today and tomorrow before the rain returns, followed by cooler, drier fall like weather.
The models have slowed down the whole shooting match by 6 to 12 hours, so it's now looking like the rain will continue through at least Wednesday. And while it will get cooler after the rain leaves (slightly below our normals of 80/60), the really cool air now looks to be around the Sunday time frame.
..TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TIER... ..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WET WEATHER IN STORE WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER E TX FORECAST TO GET ABSORBED IN THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVE TO THE AREA TUESDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH IT THAT RUNS INTO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO N GA TUESDAY WITH THE GULF SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. ALL THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASING SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH SHEAR FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF N GA THAT SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING STORMS THAT COULD TRANSLATE N LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES N. A SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALSO NOTED FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND PARTS OF N GA. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A neutral tilt upper low is forming over Texas while the surface low is taking shape over the Gulf right now. As these two features get their act together, we should start to see bands of rain forming to their east. Right now middle TN is getting a good dose of rain and as the day goes on this rainfall should begin to fill in over Georgia. One reason I love the weather is that it is so unpredictable. It goes to show you how much humans don't understand more than how much they do.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 640 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 84 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL GEORGIA BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BUTTS CRAWFORD CRISP DODGE DOOLY HOUSTON JASPER JONES MONROE PEACH PULASKI PUTNAM TWIGGS WILCOX WILKINSON IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA GREENE HANCOCK TALIAFERRO WILKES IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BARROW CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE FORSYTH FULTON GILMER GWINNETT HALL HENRY LUMPKIN MORGAN NEWTON PICKENS ROCKDALE UNION WALTON
EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: BARROW CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE FORSYTH FULTON GILMER GWINNETT HALL HENRY LUMPKIN MORGAN NEWTON PICKENS ROCKDALE UNION WALTON
I'm currently at 0.89" and I still think we'll see an additional inch here, but you're right. It's not looking as promising as it was.
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/nash_total.png
There is still a chance for a little more as the back side of the upper level system exits the area. There are some showers developing in northern Alabama that will be rotating this way over the next several hours as the low slides off to the northeast, but the heavy rain is over. Sorry guys, we'll try harder next time. At this point, an inch is better than nothing! :-)
Funny how that works isn't it! And they are really getting some rain up that direction right now. Dry slots are one of those play by play things that are very hard to predict. Here's a 5:45pm GOES satellite image of the clouds over Georgia: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/goes_tue.jpg
Huntsville radar totals: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/final_total_htx.png Notice the streaks where the heaviest rain fell.
If the El Nino winter pans out as expected, systems like this will be the norm for the southeast. Throw cold air on top of that and that's what many are thinking this winter will be like. A storm like this one a little further west and south and we might be looking at a major snow storm for our area. I know Kristi hates for me to mention snow so I just had to throw that in here... :-))