.

Winter May Not Be Over Just Yet

Like these spring temps? Don't put that swimsuit on just yet...

Just have a minute to write, I'm currently at South Georgia Motorsports Park near Adel Georgia for our first National event of the season, the SCCA Dixie National Tour. More on that to come.

We have a very interesting situation coming up next weekend that may prove winter is not over yet. Models have been calling for extreme blocking to reappear, and reappear at historic levels. If this occurs and it is appearing more and more likely, winter weather will return for a period. I'll have more when I return back to Atlanta.

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North Georgia Weather March 19, 2013 at 07:49 PM
From WeatherMatrix: "GFS model showing 1076mb (31.77") high pressure in Greenland tomorrow. World record is only ~1083! This is part of the "Blocking Pattern" that will shove winter back into most of the U.S. through early April."
Mitch March 19, 2013 at 08:11 PM
I'm going to charter a flight up to Greenland to help out with this "blocking" to shove winter down here. Who is with me? Any offensive linemen out there? Come on winter...don't leave yet!
North Georgia Weather March 19, 2013 at 08:46 PM
I'm with you Mitch! We need a posse!
North Georgia Weather March 20, 2013 at 12:59 AM
The next 10 days temperature outlook, looks just like spring :-) http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_03/6_10.gif
North Georgia Weather March 20, 2013 at 09:14 AM
Not much change overnight. The models are still confused about winter in the spring, so they are still arguing over where the next few systems will travel. Still looks like Thursday night/Friday morning will be our first chance at some winter (spring?) precipitation. It will be a little too warm for any accumulation but may be pretty to watch. The next system comes in later in the weekend bringing more precipitation, probably rain. Temperatures will remain cold for this time of year with temperatures running a good 15 degrees below normal. Today our long term average temps are 64/40, by the 28th they are 67/41. Protect your fragile plants tonight, we are under a Freeze Warning again.
North Georgia Weather March 20, 2013 at 09:58 AM
You can see here why it would have to get pretty cold before anything could stick: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ga_soil.php
North Georgia Weather March 20, 2013 at 10:15 AM
And a reminder, Spring begins today at 7:03am EDT or 11:03 UTC time. Meteorological Spring began on March 1. Today will have 12:09 of daylight and solar noon is at 1:42 PM. All this and more on this page: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_astronomy.php
North Georgia Weather March 20, 2013 at 01:27 PM
Arctic Oscillation Falls Below -5.000... The Arctic Oscillation stood at -5.632 today. That's, by far, the lowest reading ever after March 15. It's also the lowest reading after March 6 (when the AO was -6.114 in 1970).
North Georgia Weather March 20, 2013 at 08:57 PM
Great afternoon forecast discussion by the Birmingham office. They are very good at explaining weather, and entertaining too. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_bmx.php
Dave Ballard March 21, 2013 at 04:46 AM
"WHAT A SMORGASBORD OF WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK." Love it, NGW, thanks for that link. ^_^
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 10:13 AM
For tonight into the morning hours tomorrow, it still looks like a chance for some very light sleet/snow, changing to all snow by morning. The system is lacking moisture so what falls will be light. Throw the ground temps into the mix and accumulations will be nil. Still... it's about dang time... MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW. CONSIDERING THE ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...TOP DOWN METHOD CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP...EXPECT A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO ALL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE ATL METRO/AHN AREAS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT BELIEVE THESE AREAS WITH FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND DECIDE IF AN ADVISORY IS WARRANTED.
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 11:23 AM
From the Weather Prediction Center this morning (formally the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center... see why they changed it? :-)) THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM TEXAS AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN OVER-RUNNING TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THIS WILL INCLUDE SNOW, SLEET, AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF A LITTLE ROCK TO ATLANTA LINE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP, AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 03:57 PM
Greenland melt ponds: Each spring and summer, as the air warms up and the sunlight beats down on the Greenland ice sheet, sapphire-colored ponds spring up like swimming pools. As snow and ice melt atop the glaciers, the water flows in channels and streams and collects in depressions on the surface that are sometimes visible from space. These melt ponds and lakes sometimes disappear quickly - a phenomenon that scientists have observed firsthand in recent years.The natural-color image above was acquired on July 4, 2010, by the Advanced Land Imager on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite. This glacial ice field lies in southwestern Greenland, not far from Disko Bay (Disko Bugt in Danish) and Davis Strait. The center of the image is 68.91° North latitude and 48.54° West longitude. http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_2474.html
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 04:11 PM
Latest 12z NAM has more precipitation developing over N Alabama into N Georgia tonight. We will see if this helps with giving some of us a dusting of snow before it warms up tomorrow morning.
Mitch March 21, 2013 at 04:17 PM
Put those coordinates in Google Earth and you will see the same pond but smaller. In fact, there are many of these melt ponds/lakes in that area on Google Earth. Very cool! Skinny dipping time!
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 04:23 PM
That's awesome Mitch! I'll have to try that! :-)
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 04:51 PM
Per cousin Larry... "The 12Z Goofy actually looks colder and wetter to me for the Atlanta area overall vs. the prior three runs. It actually has slightly below 0 850's in the northern Atlanta suburbs as of 8 PM on Friday and has the 2 PM 2 meter temp's 14 F colder than the 12Z run of yesterday. This at least makes it a bit more Interesting." :-) Never know!
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 06:10 PM
Brother Larry a moment ago: "The TD (dewpoint temp) is colder than what the GFS per MeteoStar is showing, This could play as either a positive (more evap. cooling) or a negative (drier making it harder to get much precip. to ground, especially since we're dealing with a drying WNW 500 mb flow). Normally, I wouldn't be that excited about having much of a chance at getting something measurable in the ATL area with that kind of flow. However, the unusual thing is that the 12Z GFS has N Ark. getting as much as ~1.6" and far N MS getting as much as 1" of liquid equiv. and all of that is aiming in the general direction of ATL-AHN. Only so much of that will dry up. I'd think that there really could still be as much as ~0.25-30" still remaining once it makes it to GA."
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 07:13 PM
Uncle Larry one more time... didn't know I had an uncle, cousin, AND brother named Larry did you? :-) Funny how computer models can differ so much. " For the Atlanta-Athens corridor, here's is what I'm looking at regarding the 12Z models: - The 12Z GFS has a QPF max. of 1.6" in N AR and 1.0" in far N MS for the period ending 8 PM Friday on a ESE trajectory. This pretty much aims toward ATL-AHN and gives them ~0.20-0.25" by 8 PM Friday. - But the 12Z Euro has the QPF max much further south (1" in S AR) and only 0.50" in far N MS. This is on a SE trajectory instead of ESE and totally misses N GA with precip through the crucial still cold enough hours up til 8 PM on Friday. The furthest north of 0.05" QPF is on a line from Ft. Benning to Tifton and the max in SW Ga is only 0.10"!! - So, the 12Z Euro's precip. area through 7 PM Friday is centered nearly 200 miles south of the 12Z GFS' area, a HUGE difference!! So, which will be closer to what verifies? Will it be near the middle? If you're in Atlanta and want wintry precip. you'd better hope the GFS is close and the Euro is way off of its rocker?"
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 07:39 PM
One good early indicator that could give a hint of which 12Z model will likely be closer may be what is now falling over W MO. Whereas the Euro (both the 12Z and 0Z runs) has virtually no measurable QPF falling within 100 miles south of KC through 8 PM today, the GFS (at least the last four runs) has shown 0.05-0.10" from KC south 100 miles. By looking at recent radar loops and looking at hourly ground based reports, one can see that they're getting some measurable precip. (snow) in much of the area. Though it has been light, that hopefully is an indicator that the GFS is more in tune with reality as far as precip. is concerned. If so, that may give the edge to the GFS over the Euro, which would probably be better for N GA wintry precip. chances tomorrow. We'll see!
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 08:39 PM
This is not us... but it does include Fulton county and points west and south. This may change: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 410 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET UP TO HALF INCH...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED AREAS. AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ROADS WILL REMAIN WET AND SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THAT MAY SEE SOME ICY SPOTS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THIS AREA...THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AROUND 7 AM AND THEN ALL TO RAIN AFTER 10 AM. ANY FROZEN ACCUMULATION SHOULD THEN MELT. LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SLOW DOWN AND INCREASE THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CAR IN FRONT OF YOU IN CASE YOU NEED TO STOP ON ICY ROADWAYS.
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 08:41 PM
It appears they are leaning toward the Euro... that may or may not work out for them.
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 09:05 PM
They just issued a Freeze Warning for our area tonight until 10am tomorrow
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 09:07 PM
New weather graphic depicts the areas of concern for winter precip, http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php
North Georgia Weather March 21, 2013 at 10:30 PM
18Z model run of the GFS is showing colder than forecast temps for tomorrow. May be interesting. The models have trended colder and wetter, with the GFS leading the way this time.
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 12:48 AM
And yes, brother Larry: "The 18Z Goofy gives Marietta an impressive 0.40" of qpf tomorrow up til ~9PM with 850's mostly near a precarious +1C and 2M temp.'s as low as 34 F. This is the wettest and coldest run yet for Marietta. I think the qpf is overdone, partially because it is assuming a current TD that is about 10 F warmer than reality. However, that also means the potential of more evap. cooling than the model shows. This is sooo close to a measurable S/IP event and tells me it is quite possible. Peactree Dekalb is similar with ~0.33" of qpf. Athens is near 0.30" with 850's still near +1C. Gainseville is similar with ~0.25". Also, note that south-central MO has already received 3-5" in some spots, which means the GFS is verifying better than the Euro. That is somewhat encouraging for N GA. We'll see."
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 12:54 AM
Currently 36.5ºF and falling about 3.4º/hour here. Should be at or below freezing before the clouds come in. The dewpoint is 16.2F so the air is very dry, it will take some amount of that moisture to saturate the column. Radar returns look good and where we want them to be at this point.
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 09:00 AM
More chances after this system: WILL REMAIN A QUITE COLD PERIOD AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WRAP AROUND ON MONDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL PTYPE CONCERNS.
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 11:31 AM
Sleet on the way to work this morning
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 01:02 PM
DAYS 2-3... ...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST... A MOISTURE LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW...OVERRUNNING A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR QPF FOR BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3 ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. FOR THE MOST PART...THE QPF FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 00Z NON-NCEP MODEL BLEND. FOR DAY 2 /SAT/...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE) WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON A 40 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW CROSSING THE SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MS/AL/GA AND FL...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 OF QPF FORECAST FOR THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA SHOW MODEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. A BULLSEYE OF NEAR 2.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED IN THE AREA OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AS THE QPF FORECAST IS A BASIN AVERAGE. THE FORECAST QPF FOR DAY 2 IS LOWER THAN THE 1...3 AND 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR THE AREA...AND BECAUSE OF THIS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS NOT ASSIGNED.

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