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Winter May Not Be Over Just Yet

Like these spring temps? Don't put that swimsuit on just yet...

Just have a minute to write, I'm currently at South Georgia Motorsports Park near Adel Georgia for our first National event of the season, the SCCA Dixie National Tour. More on that to come.

We have a very interesting situation coming up next weekend that may prove winter is not over yet. Models have been calling for extreme blocking to reappear, and reappear at historic levels. If this occurs and it is appearing more and more likely, winter weather will return for a period. I'll have more when I return back to Atlanta.

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North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 12:48 AM
And yes, brother Larry: "The 18Z Goofy gives Marietta an impressive 0.40" of qpf tomorrow up til ~9PM with 850's mostly near a precarious +1C and 2M temp.'s as low as 34 F. This is the wettest and coldest run yet for Marietta. I think the qpf is overdone, partially because it is assuming a current TD that is about 10 F warmer than reality. However, that also means the potential of more evap. cooling than the model shows. This is sooo close to a measurable S/IP event and tells me it is quite possible. Peactree Dekalb is similar with ~0.33" of qpf. Athens is near 0.30" with 850's still near +1C. Gainseville is similar with ~0.25". Also, note that south-central MO has already received 3-5" in some spots, which means the GFS is verifying better than the Euro. That is somewhat encouraging for N GA. We'll see."
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 12:54 AM
Currently 36.5ºF and falling about 3.4º/hour here. Should be at or below freezing before the clouds come in. The dewpoint is 16.2F so the air is very dry, it will take some amount of that moisture to saturate the column. Radar returns look good and where we want them to be at this point.
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 09:00 AM
More chances after this system: WILL REMAIN A QUITE COLD PERIOD AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WRAP AROUND ON MONDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL PTYPE CONCERNS.
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 11:31 AM
Sleet on the way to work this morning
North Georgia Weather March 22, 2013 at 01:02 PM
DAYS 2-3... ...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST... A MOISTURE LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW...OVERRUNNING A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR QPF FOR BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3 ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. FOR THE MOST PART...THE QPF FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 00Z NON-NCEP MODEL BLEND. FOR DAY 2 /SAT/...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE) WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON A 40 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW CROSSING THE SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MS/AL/GA AND FL...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 OF QPF FORECAST FOR THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA SHOW MODEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. A BULLSEYE OF NEAR 2.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED IN THE AREA OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AS THE QPF FORECAST IS A BASIN AVERAGE. THE FORECAST QPF FOR DAY 2 IS LOWER THAN THE 1...3 AND 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR THE AREA...AND BECAUSE OF THIS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS NOT ASSIGNED.

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