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Potential for an Epic Storm Next Week

Could an epic fall storm be in the works?

If you've been following the weather (of course you have...!) you have heard of the potential storm Sandy that will be forming in the Caribbean over the next 3-5 days along with the possible impact for the eastern US. But what you probably haven't heard is what several of the models are now suggesting may happen after Sandy forms. Meteorologist Allan Hoffman (who also graciously provides many of the computer model graphics on DaculaWeather.com) specializes in tropical systems and has made a new post on his blog that outlines what could happen as Sandy evolves early next week, and here are a few of his highlights.

The entire story can be read here with many more details. Italics and bold are mine.

  1. A landfalling strong tropical/subtropical system into southern New Jersey next Tuesday 10/30. The model actually has the storm at category 3 intensity east of Hatteras Monday evening. Likely overdone, but literally what the model has. The Canadian is around 960mb.
  2. This would bring hurricane force winds likely from the Tidewater to Cape Cod including Philadelphia, New York City, perhaps Washington DC, and Boston and all the major cities in between.
  3. With the storm moving inland and maintaining strong intensity due to the trough phasing, we would see destructive winds all over the inland sections of the Northeast US.
  4. With the trough phasing we would see significant cold air on the backside of the storm with the model showing 4-8 inches of snow over western ND, southwest PA, eastern WV, northern Virginia, including a couple inches of snow near Washington DC and a dusting as far south as southern Virginia. In fact taken literally at 18z on Tuesday 10/30 it is 34 and snowing at Washington DC and 35 and snowing at Richmond, while Boston is 64 with hurricane conditions.
  5. Frost/Freezes would penetrate well into the southeast early next week.

 

This would obviously be one of the most epic/high impact storm events in recent memory and maybe all time as far as just pure weather effects across highly populated areas. So the question is what is going to cause this to happen and is it a realistic scenario? Find out here...

We'll keep you updated as this system develops. 

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This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 10:30 AM
"I guess the NYC mets will be warning their viewers and clients that a major, potentially destructive storm warning could be declared at any time within 24-48 hours, or could be waved off and an all clear sounded. We should echo this on the forum and simply say it's not possible to choose between the two options yet, what we are looking at is (in layman's terms) whether or not Sandy threads a needle and gets past a block in its path -- if it does, then the conditions may be ideal for it to max out and reach the intensity of a major hurricane. It may even still be a major hurricane (but if not, same difference, larger wind field). But at the same time, it could be weakened by this process and could arrive as a much weaker system, or, it could be blocked out and forced to turn right and head east, looking for some other weakness in the block and perhaps becoming a problem days later somewhere well to the east. So basically, I think there's maybe a one in three chance of a weather disaster, one in three chance of a weather "event" that is not a disaster, and one in three that nothing much will happen, it will get colder and perhaps rain or sleet a bit."
North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 10:45 AM
... continued from above. "My feeling is that we will have model consensus by 12z Friday but this gives perhaps 48h for effective evacuations over a busy weekend when many people will perhaps be distracted by politics, football, Halloween, month end concerns, etc etc. If the Euro were exactly right, anyone who could leave Long Island or the coastal parts of NJ, se NY and CT-RI should plan to do so and move valuables away from harm's way. With the reputation of the Euro, if I lived there, I would probably get ready to do that but wait a day or two and see what happened on the models. If this was just one other model, it would be less ominous. But the Euro? I am not aware of the Euro as being a major over-developer like the GGEM sometimes does, but in this case, you have 20-30 mbs of slack before a model error even becomes significant to the result. This would be just about as scary at 953 mbs as it is at 933 mbs."
North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 10:47 AM
And an excerpt from the NHC "THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN SHOWING A 60-KT INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48-72 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. " It's that baroclinic interaction that potentially turns Sandy into a superstorm.
North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 03:27 PM
Hurricane Sandy now.
North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 03:29 PM
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 76.7W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 07:38 PM
HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 ...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH... 130 KM/H.
North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 09:41 PM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 ...SANDY EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 76.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 09:41 PM
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH.
North Georgia Weather October 24, 2012 at 09:42 PM
The NHC cone has shifted west a little more. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sandy.php
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 12:22 AM
About 5 minutes ago: Time: 00:16:00Z Coordinates: 18.5667N 76.2W Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg) Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,920 meters (~ 9,580 feet) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 973.4 mb (~ 28.74 inHg) D-value: - Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 233° at 91 knots (From the SW at ~ 104.6 mph) Air Temp: 14.4°C (~ 57.9°F) Dew Pt: 5.7°C (~ 42.3°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 93 knots (~ 106.9 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 66 knots (~ 75.9 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 12:39 AM
We have what appears to be a major hurricane brewing. Crossing over Jamaica did little to nothing to weaken Sandy, and now a hurricane hunter is near the center and clocking winds more than 90 mph at the surface and flight level winds more than 100 mph. Sandy's core has tightened up and the cloud tops on IR have gotten much colder, again a sign of strengthening. It also appears that the center is to the west of the last NHC position and not a good sign for Florida.
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 12:48 AM
From a met commenting on the recon data below: 000 URNT12 KNHC 250026 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 00:15:00Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB MAX FL TEMP 15 C 298 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR FREQUENT LIGHTNING NW EYEWALL INBOUND ; "The thing that caught my eye was the 15°C at 700 mb.... Hot Tower baby! You try getting 15°C at 700mb. You won't find it anywhere besides a 120°F day in Death Valley under dry adiabatic conditions or right here..." Lots of ocean heat is rising rapidly into these thunderstorms and heating the air at roughly 10,000 feet to more than 60 degrees. That is some serious venting of heat and with very good outflow right now, will also cause Sandy to strengthen.
Sharon Swanepoel October 25, 2012 at 12:51 AM
Gulf or east coast Steve?
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 12:56 AM
East coast, but not a direct hit, at least not Florida. I just uploaded another model map that shows a deadly storm if it indeed comes to pass. Another meteorologist just said this: "This is still about the peak of the year for ocean SSTs. Baroclinic energy will take over as the driving process when Sandy reaches the cooler waters, it could very well intensify all the way until shore like the globals are suggesting. And I mean intensify in the sense of its minimum pressure and kinetic energy, peak winds will level out as it transitions to around cat 1-2 but the wind field will keep expanding. This has major storm surge written all over it."
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 01:05 AM
New England NWS forecast discussion excerpt: THE STORM IS TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LITERARY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...THE POST-TROPICAL TRACK OF SANDY IS SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TO BENCHMARK TRACKS OF THE GREAT GALE OF 1878 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954 /THOUGH HAZEL DID EXHIBIT A SLIGHT WESTWARD LEAN IT IS TRACK/.
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 01:28 AM
Added another image, Miami is beginning .to see bands of rain from Sandy.
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 10:05 AM
Sandy made landfall in Cuba earlier with 110 mph sustained winds. Weather station in Gran Piedra, Cuba (located at ~2600 feet) reported a gust of 152 mph
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 10:07 AM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY PREPARING TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 75.8W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 40 MI...75 KM E OF HOLGUIN CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 10:07 AM
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 10:33 AM
NE meteorologist: "Looks like the greatest clarity at the moment is the inland snowstorm followed by the heavy rain in NJ-ePA. Other details have greater uncertainties but the range of impacts is tremendous. For southern New England, the range is from catastrophic to minor (excluding low-prob swerving out to sea variants). "
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 12:24 PM
Great blog by NASA explaining Sandy from a satellite perspective. More and more likely to follow the Euro solution and make landfall in the northeast. This could be a very dangerous storm. http://goesrnatcentperspective.wordpress.com/
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 01:22 PM
GOES 13 has been place in "RSO" mode, Rapid Scan Operations at the request of the National Hurricane Center to track hurricane Sandy. This is a mode in which the GOES satellite can provide images over the conterminous US region approximately every 7.5 minutes. This doubles the number of GOES images generated per hour and is requested for a particular satellite.
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 01:33 PM
A Critical Weather Day was issued beginning yesterday and continuing through Monday. START: 1200Z WED OCT 24 2012 END: 0000Z MON OCT 29 2012 TYPE: Regional WHO: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS SOUTHERN REGION The NCEP declaration of a Critical Weather Day (CWD) will ensure that the computer, communications, and personnel resources of the NCEP are directed toward production and delivery of essential forecast products. This policy will minimize the chance of delay in the delivery of NCEP products and services to NCEP customers. Storm mode basically.
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 04:14 PM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...SANDY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 75.5W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 04:40 PM
I see the major news outlets are finally making this a big story... as it should be. Very dangerous system, especially for the northeast.
Mitch October 25, 2012 at 04:42 PM
This track looks like it will nail NJ/NY! http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Active.aspx?storm=1&type=track
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 04:57 PM
Yes, right now it's not looking good for the northeast at all. We've also been noticing a slight change in direction, more toward the NW. Sandy has been moving at about 10 degrees east of north, but the last report had a due north component and it is very possibly about 350º (or about 10 degrees west of north). The westward jog was anticipated along with a slow down, but this will also need to be watched carefully. The current forecast track doesn't have Sandy that far off the Florida coast and any westward movement is cause for concern.
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 04:59 PM
Nice satellite loop here. Click on visible loop http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_caribbean.php
Mitch October 25, 2012 at 05:33 PM
I guess trick or treating in Manhattan is out of the question. Hurricane Sandy costumes may be a big hit this year.
North Georgia Weather October 25, 2012 at 06:11 PM
Huntsville NWS is calling for temps to be 30 degrees colder than todays 80 degree reading by Sunday/Monday

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