Potential for Snow This Weekend

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, a potential snow maker will be developing later this week and bring the possibility of snow as far south as Atlanta, and possibly even further south. I know... I can hear the voices in your head (didn't know I could do that, did you?) saying "What? No way!" and you may be right. But for now, the chance is there, so let's see how this may play out.

First, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) had this to say this morning:

ANOTHER TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST BY TUE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH ERN CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE EVOLUTION DURING SAT-SUN GIVEN PERSISTENTLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE DETAILS THAT ARE TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME WOULD SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO RESOLVE SPECIFIC SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE EAST COAST.

In other words, the models have widely differing opinions on how this system will evolve, and it will take several days before we know anything for sure (and are we ever sure?). Either way, this is going to be fun to track and I'll keep you informed on its progress as the week progresses. Last night I posted a couple of links for the GFS ensembles so you could see the variation in the solutions, here are several links for your viewing pleasure, all focused around 132 hours, but you can piuck and choose the time frame:

• http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zsnowf132.html
• http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zsnowf132.html
• http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf132.html
• http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf132.html

And snow or no snow, this will be the coldest air of the season for the Atlanta area. Robert Gamble at WXSouth.com had this to say about the temperatures:

"All models have the coldest thickness of Winter coming right across the heart of the Southeast. It's about time. Most areas of BHM to ATL probably won't get out of the 30s on Saturday with full sun.  If there is any snow cover at all, Sunday morning lows will be lower teens, maybe even lower."  

Not too much to add right now, I'll have more to add as new model runs come in.

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