Rain in the Forecast for Labor Day Weekend

Remember that rain I was saying we might get? Well, it looks like we're probably going to get it just in time to mess up your holiday weekend. This hydrologic outlook was issued by the Atlanta office of the National Weather Service this morning:

...HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE MAY BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY OVER NORTH GEORGIA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACT SHOULD BE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN AS THE STORM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. GEORGIA WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE STATE. HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTH GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THESE WEATHER FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE A MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT HAS BEEN PREVAILING OVER NORTH GEORGIA...THE SOILS ARE VERY DRY. INITIALLY...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE SOILS. HOWEVER...THE PROLONGED DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA...ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS... WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS. RESIDENTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICKING ON GEORGIA...OR BY TUNING INTO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA LIKE DACULAWEATHER.COM FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

I wouldn't be surprised to see much more than 2-3" over the entire period of this system. Models are showing this current tropical depression eventually winding down to a cut-off low over the southeast and hanging around through almost all of next week. I'm very concerned about the possibility of severe flooding, and especially over North Georgia. The QPF numbers I'm seeing over an extended period of time are outrageous and I normally wouldn't take much stock in quantities that high, but cut-off lows in the SE are notorious for dumping huge amounts rain, and this one will be no exception. It appears that between this Saturday and next Friday, it would not be out of the question to see 5-10" of rain in North Georgia, dependant on track and speed. Saturday will be the best day for outdoor activities so try to squeeze your fun into one day, you may not get any more for a little while! I now have a GRLevel3 radar loop going for New Orleans and they are going to get hammered by rain, last night's HPC map showed 24" over 5 days... if this comes true it will be devastated by flooding as the pumps won't be able to keep up with the rainfall. Realistically, 10-20" is more like what they'll probably see. At any rate, flooding will be widespread.

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