Unsettled Weather Ushers in the Work Week With a Chance of Showers

We start off today with clouds on the increase from a southerly flow of air from the Gulf of Mexico. A low level jet stream is forecast to arrive over our area later this afternoon and could cause some very gusty winds to occur as the jet stream winds mix down to the surface levels and the pressure gradient increases from the west as the high pressure that brought us those very cool temperatures moves out to the Atlantic. The upper level winds are moving west to east while the lower level winds will be flowing perpendicular and coming from the south. We will be borderline for a wind advisory so hold on to your hats later today.

Monday should be a mostly cloudy day as moisture continues to increase in advance of a trough of low pressure. Most of the models hold off any precipitation until late Tuesday but a few still show some showers over North Georgia as early as tomorrow. The Atlanta National Weather Service office was discussing how the models have a very difficult time forecasting quick moving southern stream systems at this time of year, and especially the timing of those systems. Right now it appears that our best chance for rain will be later Tuesday night but all of that could change. And depending on the timing, there could be some thunder with this system but the severe threat appears minimal.

Temperatures will be above our seasonal norms this week. The average for today is 63/41 while we head toward a high of 68 degrees. Next Sunday our averages are 60/35 so you can see how our temps start to tumble as we get closer to the start of meteorological winter (Dec. 1). We'll be running 5-7 degrees warm for highs and 13-18 degrees warm for lows (thanks to clouds and moisture) through Wednesday before temperatures fall back below normal for a few days. As always, you can get your 7-day forecast here. Right now we're locked in a warm weather pattern for the next several weeks but the snow cover is building over Canada and will help sustain some very cold temperatures over the north over the coming weeks. Here is an animated loop showing the snow cover buildup over the northern hemisphere since October. The models are forecasting the NAO to go negative around Thanksgiving which is what we want in order to funnel cold air our way. If that occurs, I look for some very cold air for our area within a week or two after it crosses into negative territory.

Right now we're in an almost identical weather pattern that we were in at this time last year and you remember how that winter turned out. The snow weenies have already started panicking because it's been warm and the forecast is for continued warmth for a few more weeks. Patience snow weenies! All is not lost yet! You want snow? Just across our northern border into North Carolina where the ski season has started. Take a look at some of these web cams to see the activities! 

• Cataloochee - Web Cam - 4 slopes, 2 lifts open today, 12-30" base, closed this week, and opening for the season Saturday the 19th
• Beech - Web Cam - Link to the main page, they have six web cams
• Sugar Mountain - Web Cam - Sugar Mountain Resort opened Nov. 11 for skiing, snowboarding and ice skating - 1 lift 2 slopes open, 12-18" base

So all in all, a pretty mild start for the work week followed by a cool down again, does this kinda sound like last week? You see a pattern here? :-)

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