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Flood Watch Posted for North Georgia

Flood Watch in effect from late tonight through Monday morning. Severe weather possibility increases.

UPDATE - 3:23pm Saturday
POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SWINGING NEGATIVE NEAR THE ARKLATEX IS PROGGED TO DAMPEN WITH THE ENERGY EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD AS ITS ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. VERY STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW TONIGHT... WITH A 60-KT 850MB LLJ PRESENT IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. THIS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED ALONG THE TRANSLATED SFC FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE NORTHERN GULF. PROGGED 0-1KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 40 KTS... ALONG WITH AROUND 65 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH 300-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. IN SUCH A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT... THE LOCAL SHERB VALUES ARE CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 1.0 IN NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD TONIGHT. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER IS ALSO AT 1.0 FOR 09Z IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE STATE. LOCAL WRF SOLUTION HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING A SQUALL LINE ENTERING THE NW AFTER 09Z AND EVENTUALLY HAVING EMBEDDED CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 14Z. SPC UPDATED DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS THE SLIGHT RISK MAINLY JUST NW OF THE ATLANTA AREA...THOUGH THE MODERATE RISK AREA WAS PULLED FARTHER EASTWARD AND ONLY A FEW COUNTIES WEST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA. THE NW IS INCLUDED IN A 2-5
PERCENT TORNADO AREA AND UP TO 30 PERCENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ALL IN ALL... THERE IS DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST IN THE 09-14Z (4am - 9am)  PERIOD WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND REFLECTIVITY NOTCHES WITHIN ANY SQUALL LINE OR EMBEDDED CELLS IN SUCH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF... CALHOUN... DAHLONEGA... CLEVELAND... ROME... CARTERSVILLE... GAINESVILLE... MARIETTA... ATLANTA... LAWRENCEVILLE... ATHENS... CARROLLTON... DOUGLASVILLE... EAST POINT... DECATUR... CONYERS... COVINGTON... NEWNAN... PEACHTREE CITY... GRIFFIN... COLUMBUS
1033 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
  • FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...ALONG  AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO FORSYTH TO GREENSBORO.
  • FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
  • A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA WILL  CAUSE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING INCLUDING SMALLER  CREEKS AND STREAMS.
  • SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ALPHARETTA  AND CUMMING ON THE BIG CREEK...SUWANEE CREEK AND THE OCONEE  RIVER AT PENFIELD. THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE  MINOR.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1106 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT FOR NW GA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE
A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (closer to us)... AND SPC UPDATED CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO HAVE SLIGHT RISK A BIT FARTHER EAST EDGING INTO NW GA. GRAPHICS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ARE BEING UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH... BASED ON UPDATED QPF WITH SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

The WPC QPF (Precip) forecast is here.
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North Georgia Weather December 22, 2013 at 04:19 AM
HAVE ALREADY BROKEN THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT ATL. IT APPEARS THAT THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN JEOPARDY AT ALL OF THE CLIMATE STATIONS. WILL FINALLY START TO SEE A COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SOME AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE THAN A 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BETWEEN THE HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY.
North Georgia Weather December 22, 2013 at 05:58 AM
Storms not as strong as anticipated in Birmingham... WHAT LOOKED LIKE A SURE BET LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OPPOSITE AND ONE TRICKY AND FRUSTRATING FORECAST. THE TIMING...WHICH WAS THE TRICKIEST PART EARLIER THIS WEEK...WAS RIGHT ON...AS THE LINE MOVED INTO THE AREA AFTER 10PM. WE DID SEE SOME ROTATION WITH A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL AS ALONG THE LINE ITSELF... BUT THE STORMS JUST COULD NOT HOLD TOGETHER AND MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD.
North Georgia Weather December 22, 2013 at 11:49 AM
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1134 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013 ======================= ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING CREEK IN GEORGIA... SUWANEE CREEK NEAR SUWANEE AFFECTING GWINNETT COUNTY .RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE LATEST STAGE DATA WAS FURNISHED IN COOPERATION WITH THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.
North Georgia Weather December 22, 2013 at 11:54 AM
New record high temperature set for Athens, GA of 71 beating the old record of 70 in 1918.
North Georgia Weather December 22, 2013 at 03:38 PM
.HYDROLOGY... STALLED FRONT AND SWATH OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OFF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 1-3 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. EXPECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS AREA WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING INCLUDING SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG SOME CREEKS IN NORTH GEORGIA.

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