Increasing Likelihood of Ice in North Georgia

This from the National Weather Service a little while ago...

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1054 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY OR MOST OF TOMORROW HAVE BEEN
MADE AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. ARE
STARTING TO LOOK AT THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A ICE EVENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS STILL COMING IN AND WILL EXAMINE FURTHER. DOES APPEAR FZRA WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY AM.

MORE INFORMATION FORTHCOMING."

Here is a graphical look at the ice probabilities right now. The models aren't handling this very well at all and all of this may change over the next day or so. Please refer back to my last post regarding this system. 

From my buddy Larry a few minutes ago:
"1. My earlier comments about the 925's not being colder than the 850's were based on the 6z gfs. However, the 12z gfs actually does have cooler 925's than 850's at the start of precip. in virtually all N GA locations and that even lasts into at least a few hours of the precip! So, that's indicative of in situ wedging and a possible stable cold layer near the sfc. 2. I was wrong about the 850's at the start of the precip. I had thought they were in the 6-7C range. Well, they do get to 6-7C pretty quickly but they do, as you said, start mainly at 4-5C. So, that is actually near historical parameters for sig. ZR. Moreover, even though they rise pretty quickly, they largely level off in the 7-8 C range with much (and we're talking significant amounts like near an inch) of the precip. having already fallen. Historically, major ZR has been maintained as long as 850's stayed below about 8C in our area.
So, for these reasons, I have suddenly changed my position totally from very doubtful of any ice at Atl-Ahn and with only a little sleet near the start to thinking some ZR is a realistic possibility and with an outside shot at something significant. So, I'm now in the watching carefully mode of FFC and yourself/others as long as gfs runs continue to look like today's 12z."

UPDATE - 2:50pm Sunday
"SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030-031-041-250730-DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-POLK-PAULDING-HARALSON-
246 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013
...TWO ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE IN NORTH GEORGIA THIS WEEK...

A GULF LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT NORTH GEORGIA COULD SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGINNING AND AGAIN AT THE END OF THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN THE COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND FINE TUNING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BETWEEN THE TWO EVENTS...RAIN IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.

EVENT 1... MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
* LOCATIONS... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET IN MURRAY...FANNIN...  GILMER...UNION...TOWNS...PICKENS...DAWSON...UNION AND WHITE  COUNTIES.
* TIMING... 7 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS... FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A  TRACE TO 0.15 INCHES... HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AT THE HIGHEST  ELEVATIONS.
* DISCUSSION...COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE  OUT AS THE GULF LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. AS A RESULT A SHALLOW  COLD LAYER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTH  GEORGIA. RAIN FALLING INTO THIS AIRMASS SHOULD FREEZE AS IT  MAKES CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD  HELP TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LOW. AS THE NIGHT PROCEEDS THE AIR  TEMPERATURE SHOULD WARM AND THE ICE SHOULD MELT BEFORE OR JUST  NEAR SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

* UNCERTAINTIES...COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING AROUND AN INCH  OF RAIN TO FALL DURING THIS TIME. THE SPEED AT WHICH THE WARM  MOVES INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIGHT ICE  ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS.

EVENT 2...WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS.. .NORTH OF A BUCHANAN TO CANTON TO CLEVELAND LINE.
* TIMING... FROM 3AM WEDNESDAY TO 9AM WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN  PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. 7AM TO 7PM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  GEORGIA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM  WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
* IMPACTS... SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES...AND ICE  ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.05 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET IN  THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.
* DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY  AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE MOISTURE AND COLD  AIR WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW  RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST  GEORGIA.. .PUSHING EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE NORTHEAST  GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THE EVENT WILL END AS BRIEF FREEZING RAIN OR  FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* UNCERTAINTIES...IF WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE COOLER THAN  FORECAST... ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY... THE AMOUNT  OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY  THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT.
STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLE STATEMENTS... ADVISORIES... WATCHES OR WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY."

UPDATE - 7:23pm Sunday
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030-251230-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-POLK-

719 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

...THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL THIS WEEK...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 8 PM MONDAY EVENING... BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED... AND SHOULD MAINLY BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

AS THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF STATES ON TUESDAY... RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF GEORGIA. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE MINOR FLOODING ON CREEKS AND STREAMS.

A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STILL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF INTO THE CAROLINAS. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE EVENING... THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 1500 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS WEEK...PLEASE
CHECK FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ALONG YOUR ROUTE.

UPDATE: 5:53am Monday
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
329 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7
PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A
  LINE FROM CHATSWORTH TO JASPER TO DAHLONEGA TO CLEVELAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS....EXPECT A LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH
  AS BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREES AND WIRES.

* TIMING...7 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS
  EVENING...WARMING INTO THE MID 30S BY TUESDAY MORNING.


More information coming soon...

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