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Health & Fitness

October State of The Climate, Winter Weather Memories, and more!

Let's hear your winter weather memories!

When's the last time you saw blue skies? Back in my December 1st blog post, I said it was going to be a dreary work week, but I guess I forgot to mention that it was going to be a dreary weekend also! The front has finally cleared the area with clear skies and a stiff NW breeze bringing in cooler and dryer air. We should remain like this through (and actually cooling down slightly) Friday, before another system brings rain and cooler temperatures over the weekend. 

It's that time of year when all the winter weather weenies gather around the computer models and fantasize about massive winter storms... kind of like sitting around a campfire and telling stories. But I doubt it's like that everywhere. Those of you that grew up in the northern part of the country probably hate snow, and that's why you moved down here to the south. For you, snow is routine. That's why people in the north don't get excited when a little snowstorm is coming, or for that matter, a big snowstorm. They see snow all the time, it just becomes a nuisance as much as anything. 

And that's the difference in following winter weather here. Here it's special. First of all, it's hard to get a nice winter storm here. Everything has to come together just right. Up north, snow falls like a spring rain here. Our winter weather events are few and far between, and because of that, when we do have one, it becomes one of those magical moments when it makes everyone feel like a kid again.  

I grew up in Nashville and I remember quite a few good snows.
I remember predicting a snow when I was about 12... :-) Yes, I liked the weather back then too! It was 70+ degrees one day, the next day we had 7" of snow. Those events are awesome! I remember we would build a huge berm in the road to block cars just so we could sled, but I remember the mailman didn't like that too much. We had a great downhill run that took a hard right as it dove down another hill, to a hard left. I guess that's why I like racing, all of those sledding turns got it in my blood!

When I was at college (UT Knoxville) we use to go sledding down a road called Montvale Road. The road went up a ridge, and it was pretty steep. We would get a 4WD vehicle to pull us up, and then we take the long ride back down. Once you hit the straightaway, you were hauling. The runners would barely touch the ground and if you had to stop... well, you could forget stopping at that point. To slow down you had to drag your body on the ground while digging your boots in the ice. Ahhh.... those were the days. :-)

I remember we had a massive snowstorm (73-74?) and me and a buddy decided we were going to the mountains one night. Off we headed toward the Smokies. Normally they would have had the gates locked with this much snow, but not this night, and we cruised right on past the Ranger station and up to Newfound Gap. To this day, I have never seen as much snow as I saw that night. The tree branches had so much snow they were touching the ground. And you couldn't see ground anywhere (or anything else for that matter), EVERYTHING was solid white.  Once we got to the Newfound Gap parking lot, we discovered that they had plowed the lot, so there were huge piles of snow 10 feet tall on both sides of the lot. It was so cold and so packed down that I could drive my VW Karman Ghia at a 45 degree angle, down the side of the plowed snow. It just seemed like a fun thing to do. ;-)

My dad always had a boat when I was growing up, and we had a houseboat on Old Hickory Lake. I remember one time we went cruising the lake while it was snowing! :-) Sitting inside where it was nice and warm whie you float on ice cold water and watch the snow, talk about cool! Those are just a few of the memories that I have of winter weather, and they are all good. 

How many of you have kids that so far, haven't really seen their first snow? Do you remember the snows that occurred when you were a kid? 
I'd love to hear a few of your stories!

STATE OF THE CLIMATE
I am a little late in posting the State of The Climate for October... November will be out pretty soon! :-) 
Here are a few of the October highlights:

  • The average temperature for the contiguous United States during October was 53.6°F, 0.6°F below the 20th century average, making it the 37th coolest October on record.
  • Below-average temperatures dominated west of the Mississippi River. Oregon had its 11th coolest October, with a monthly temperature of 46.3°F, 3.0°F below average. No state had October temperatures that ranked among the ten coolest.
  • The Alaska statewide average temperature during October was 8.8°F above the 1971-2000 average marking its warmest October on record in the 95-year period of record. 
  • The October national precipitation total was 2.23 inches, 0.12 inch above the 20th century average.
  • According to analysis by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the October snow cover extent across the contiguous U.S. was the fifth largest in the 46-year period of record at 132,000 square miles, more than 60,000 square miles above average. Conversely, the Alaska snow cover extent was 53,000 square miles below average, and the ninth smallest October snow cover extent on record.
  • On a local basis during October, there were slightly more (1.2 times as many) record cold daily highs (698) and lows (407) as record warm daily highs (242) and lows (689).

WINTER WEATHER STATS FOR GA
A few weather tidbits regarding winter weather in Georgia from my weather buddy Larry.
"To help keep expectations for areas outside of the mountains grounded in reality, only a mere ~3% of Atlanta's winter precip liquid equivalent is wintry on average. In other words, "evil" liquid precipitation is overwhelmingly favored throughout the winter for any single event for these major cities and in the non-mountainous SE in general. Of course, these statistics shouldn't be a surprise. 

Only ~15% of seasonal Snow/Ice at KATL has fallen by 12/31. February and January have far exceeded December. Since 1924, March has had a fair amount more snow than December. Regarding ZR (freezing rain), only ~20% of the major ZR's have occurred by 12/31. Also, most of the major December ZR's have occurred 12/24+. January is the big ZR month for north Georgia."

As long as we're talking about winter, I have a couple of new pages that depict snow cover over the US.
National Snow Cover Page
Regional Snow Cover Page
Again, best viewed using a real browser like Google Chrome.

OUTLOOK
Teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA) continue to remain unfavorably aligned for the near future, with the AO set to spike very positive again.  The MJO continues to be non-favorable as it hangs around in Phase 3.  The NAO is riding slightly above zero and is forecast to remain there for the next week or two. The CFS, as it has all fall, continues to back off of the extreme coast to coast warmth in its January prognosis, and is now showing a cool west, slightly warm east, as well as drier conditions.  Week 1 looks below average in the east with Weeks 2 and 3 above and now Week 4 back to around normal.  Canada looks very cold for Weeks 3 and 4.  Precipitation looks near or above normal for the SE through the period. I think we can expect more of the same for while, with bouts of rain seperated by brief cool downs with drier air. There is still no real blocking to push the bitter cold that's currently locked up in Canada, south. We'll get brief incursions of cold air but nothing to write home about. 

It appears that since we're in a Nino neutral situation now, it's no help in any long term predictions for weather, so it becomes more difficult to look too far ahead. The models have been hinting at something around the Christmas time frame so that's something I will certainly be watching for. I think it's time for another White Christmas again!

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