Health & Fitness
Snow Shower Chance Diminishes
Chance for snow diminishes but very windy and cold remain
UPDATE Monday 6:19am -
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
513 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
• LOCATIONS...NORTH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
• TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING.
• TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
• IMPACTS...THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT VEGETATION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FREEZE EVENT
IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS
IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION AND YOUNG TREES.
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The words that light up a childs eyes, or words that cause some adults to cringe. Either way... we're probably going to see some snowflakes on November 12/13!
The ingredients are coming together for everyone in north AND central Georgia to witness a rare late fall snowfall. Amounts will be very light and in most cases won't stick due to warm surface temps. The NWS had this to say this morning regarding the general outlook:
...LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH INFLUENCE OF ABNORMALLY STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SUITE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW IN EVEN BETTER CONSENSUS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ON THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM RUN NOW RESOLVES A PORTION OF THE PERIOD OF CONCERN... WHICH ADDS TO A GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ALMOST DUE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH IMPRESSIVE WAVE ENERGY.
CORRESPONDINGLY... A STRONG 1045MB+ SFC HIGH LOOKS TO PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SUCH A STRONG SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR IS QUITE UNUSUAL... NOT TO MENTION FOR MID NOVEMBER... SO CLIMO CAN BE TOSSED ASIDE.
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I have several images to show you what the Euro is depicting. I'd love to include these inline but the Patch blog code doesn't support that... so here 'ya go!
The first image is a plot of the 500 mb heights (in meters) from the Euro around hour 81 (5am Wednesday). you can easily see the longwave positive tilt trough, and a corresponding vortex max as it passes over Georgia.
Image two is a plot of the temperatures around 1am Wednesday from the Euro and you can see it's well below freezing.
And image three is a simulated radar view at 75 hours from the NAM.
This brings us to the discussion about the snowfall potential:
THE FIRST AND MORE CHALLENGING ISSUE OF WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL COMES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A SLUG OF LINGERING MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND EAST OF THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS. PVA IS VERY ROBUST AND TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE GOOD OMEGA SO THERE WILL BE NO LACKING IN FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN DETERMINING FACTOR.
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DECENTLY SATURATED COLUMNS BELOW 600-700MB AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND CORRESPONDING TEMP PROFILES QUICKLY DROP BELOW 0-C MAINLY AFTER 03Z WED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS... THEN ISOTHERMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 0-C FARTHER SOUTH NEAR COLUMBUS AND MACON BY 09-12Z. BASED ON THIS AND THE PROGRESSION OF PROGGED PLAN VIEW 850-MB TEMPS... THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA COULD EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY... THEN THE TRANSITION COULD BE SEEN FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE ATLANTA AREA BY 06Z...(1am Wed) AND NORTH CENTRAL GA AFTER 09Z. QPF OVERALL IS TRENDING A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE... BUT LOOKING LIKE NORTHEAST PORTION OF AREA COULD SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENCY FOR NOW. BASED ON PROGGED SFC TEMPS... THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /THINKING AN INCH OR LESS/ ...WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR FLAKES TO STICK. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BUCHANAN... TO CANTON... TO CLEVELAND LINE COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
Temperatures will also be anomalously low for this time of year, and we're going to be looking at temperatures that are more line with winter than fall.
THE SECOND ISSUE WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CLOSE TO 1030-MB... GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT WILL BE ADDED TO THE ALREADY COLD TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVECTIVE FLOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD YET OF THE SEASON AND MANY AREAS COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS AS VALUES COULD DIP 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE GONE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE ONGOING TREND FROM GUIDANCE. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE MID 20S WITH THE FAR NORTHEAST DIPPING INTO THE LOW 20S. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN POINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR TEENS IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
Changes to the forecast are inevitable at this point, so stay tuned to more information!
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