Thursday Severe Weather Update

What an interesting weather pattern coming up, with the possibility of severe weather tomorrow and rain, rain, rain, beginning around Monday. More about the very wet period that's coming up next week in another post. 

First, the severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has placed north Georgia in a Slight Risk area for severe weather tomorrow (see the main image above). The latest from their Day 2 Outlook issued at 12:29pm.

...ERN CONUS...
 WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST... LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AT LEAST MODERATE. COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS... SETUP SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MOST ROBUST COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE 500 MB NWLYS SHOULD REACH 25-35 KT AMIDST A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HERE... TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BOTH SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH NRN EXTENT. BUT WITH PROBABLE CYCLOGENESIS... EVEN MODEST HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

But what I found interesting was the forecast discussion from the Atlanta NWS this afternoon. Nice to see the different scenarios discussed.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT RIPPLES IN THE FLOW TO CONTINUE ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. 06Z AND 12Z GFS SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE AM TOMORROW. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... HIRES MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A MCS THAT FORMS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THEN DIVES SOUTH INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE SPC HAS INTRODUCED NORTH GEORGIA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE ARE A FEW POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WITH THE POTENTIAL MCS.
1. NO MCS FORMS. THESE SEEMS UNLIKELY AS CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE MCS IS TO THE EAST AND WOULD LIKELY STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA... UNLESS THE HIRES MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THEN IT COULD DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. 

2. THE MCS FORMS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST... IN THIS CASE THE FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THAT A MCS WOULD MOVE THROUGH TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AM AND THEN MOVE IN NORTH GEORGIA AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

3. THE HIRES MODELS ARE RIGHT AND STORMS FORM OVER MO AND DIVE SOUTH INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. IN THIS CASE WE WOULD SEE OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EXPERIENCE PART OF THE MCS IN THE AM.

BELIEVE THAT ONE OF THE LATTER TWO POSSIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS SUCH... INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR TOMORROW. MAIN THREAT TOMORROW WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  

AS THE REMNANTS OF A MCS MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY... THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BE STRONG. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE MCS... WE COULD GET ENOUGH HEATING TOMORROW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REFORM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS WELL.

We'll continue to watch this potential severe weather event and pass along any updated information as soon as we get it. 

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