.

Dangerous Weather Ahead for Wednesday

Severe weather in the forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The conditions are set for a major severe weather outbreak over the southeast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Meteorologists are becoming very concerned about the potential for a major tornado outbreak, particularly over the Tennessee Valley region. However, parts of northern Georgia are included in the moderate risk area issued by the Storm Prediction Center and the entire state could see severe weather tomorrow. 

We went all day long today with nothing on the radar, but things have since exploded over Texas and Arkansas. I will be tracking these storms as they approach and currently have Little Rock, Memphis, and Columbus AFB in Mississippi, looping on my GRLevel III system. GRLevel III software takes in raw NWS NEXRAD data and performs calculations that can determine storm rotation, hail, and tornado vortex signatures, as well as many other pieces of information such as storm height and speed. I will keep these running in the areas that are having the worse weather.

This is a very dangerous weather system, potentially more dangerous than anything we've seen in 15-20 years here in the Atlanta area. Here is some very ominous talk from the otherwise generally conservative Steve Nelson, the chief forecaster for the Atlanta office of the National Weather Service. I've highlighted what I believe is extremely important.

 "12Z MODEL RUNS STILL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MOSTLY FOR WED NIGHT.  SIG TOR PARAMETER /STP/VALUES ARE THE HIGHEST I PERSONALLY HAVE EVER SEEN FROM THE GFS OR NAM WITH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PROGGED FOR ERN MS/NRN AL/CENTRAL TN 18 TO 21Z WED. RECALL THAT STP COMBINES MLCAPE..0 TO 1 KM SHEAR AND LCL. VALUES GREATER THAN 1.0 INDICATE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AND VALUES  GREATER THAN 3.0 INDICATE TORNADOES LIKELYTHESE ARE OFF THE CHART GUYS. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUES OF STP I HAVE SEEN ARE 14 FOR THE APR 2010 YAZOO CITY OUTBREAK AND 16 FOR THE MAY 10 2010 CENTRAL OK OUTBREAK. WE CAN TAKE SOME COMFORT FOR GA THAT STP IS PROGGED TO DROP SOME BY THE TIME THE  STORMS GET TO NW GA AROUND 00Z 

BUT...UNFORTUNATELY... WERE STILL TALKING ABOUT VALUES OF 8 TO 11 IN NORTH GA AND EVEN 6 TO 10 IN MIDDLE GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.WE REALLY NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THIS. 
SNELSON"

This is very serious weather. The one caveat is how much of an effect the ongoing convection will have on our area, and that is the only reason the SPC hasn't already added a high risk probability for tomorrow's outlook yet. 

If you don't currently have a weather radio, now is the perfect time to get one. Please stay tuned to TV, radio, NOAA radio, and DaculaWeather.com for the latest severe weather information.  DaculaWeather.com broadcasts all alerts, watches, warnings, and special weather statements directly to Twitter (twitter.com/daculaweather) and by email through our own EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) server where we receive the information immediately as it's issued.  The service is free and you can unsubscribe at any time. Click here to sign up http://www.daculaweather.com/email_alert.php  

North Georgia Weather April 27, 2011 at 10:19 AM
Part of Georgia is now in a High Risk area for severe weather. As mentioned earlier, the severe weather parameters with this system are extreme. You'll notice the large area of rain on the radar from Birmingham, this is not the really severe weather, that will come in later in the day behind this initial batch. Most of the day should be peaceful until late afternoon. Keep in mind that any super-cells that develop can form tornadoes later today, stay tuned to your TV, radio, NOAA weather radio, and DaculaWeather.com for the latest in severe weather information.
North Georgia Weather April 27, 2011 at 07:08 PM
From the Storm Prediction Center -------------------------------------------------- Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Very dangerous people. Be prepared.
Kristi Reed April 27, 2011 at 08:25 PM
How unusual is it to have those kind of high probabilities?

Boards

More »
Got a question? Something on your mind? Talk to your community, directly.
Note Article
Just a short thought to get the word out quickly about anything in your neighborhood.
Share something with your neighbors.What's on your mind?What's on your mind?Make an announcement, speak your mind, or sell somethingPost something
See more »