As if we haven't already had enough rain, now we have a potential tropical system that may impact our area and much of the southeast this weekend.
Invest 92L is what this system is currently called, and it currently resides just southeast of the Yucatan peninsula and just west of Jamaica and is currently moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph (Satellite image). The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and a 70% or high chance over the next 5 days. The models have been differing on the exact track, but as you can tell from this image, the ensemble members seem to like a central Gulf coast landfall. In addition to the track map, this image is an intensity forecast, and these GFS ensemble members bring this system to 96 mph or a CAT 2 hurricane in less than 96 hours, and the SHIPS has it at 57 mph at 84 hours. Right now that is not the official forecast and we'll need to see how Invest 92L fares after crossing the Yucatan. At that point it's moving over very warm waters, so it will need to be watched carefully.
There are 5 recon flights scheduled for tomorrow, but it doesn't copy and paste very well, so here is the link.
The big short term concern is the heavy rain that will fall now through the weekend. Here's the latest Hydrology Discussion from the Atlanta NWS office:
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA... HOWEVER A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNTS. GFS IS MUCH HIGHER WITH 3-6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH LESS THAN ONE INCH ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND 2-3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 3HR FFG VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE 3-4 INCHES. OVERALL CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL GIVEN THEY HAVE RECEIVED LESS RAINFALL THAN NORTH GEORGIA THIS SUMMER AND DO NOT HAVE THE TERRAIN IMPACTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ANY TRAINING OR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD PRIME THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND THOUGH... THINK ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY TO PRIME THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKENDS EVENT.
FOR THE EXTENDED...
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING ON SATURDAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SO THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... TOTAL BASIN AVERAGE QPF UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH 1-3 ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. OBVIOUSLY SOME AREAS MIGHT GET MORE. SOME CONCERN THAT THE RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL QUALIFY AS A PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH TEND TO SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ITSELF /IN THIS CASE ON SATURDAY/ AND SOMETIMES ARE NOT GIVEN ENOUGH CREDENCE IN CONSIDERING OVERALL QPF. IN ANY CASE... WITH THE RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WE COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT REALLY NORTH GEORGIA CANNOT HANDLE MUCH MORE... AND EVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY BE IN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RIVER FLOODING WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE."
And finally, I would quote the entire WPC QPF discussion, but here's the jest of what they said and I quote: "A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS COMING INTO PICTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES..." and "THIS WILL RESULT IN RARE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN MID AUGUST FOR A LARGE SCALE HEAVY RAIN EVENT." The discussion can be found here. I have also uploaded an image showing us in an "excessive rainfall" area, and the Excessive Rainfall discussion can be found here.
We'll be keeping a close eye on this Gulf system as it begins it's development, and make another post as conditions warrant.
I have several resources you can use to track this system as it develops over the next several days in the Gulf:
- Satellite Image - Page 1 (Visible, Water Vapor, Infrared), Page 2 (US Naval Research Lab, great color and winds), Page 3 (A page full of interactive satellite images)
- Sea Surface Temps - To keep an eye on water temps (one image is missing due to a server being down)
- Hurricane Hunter Recon Flight Info - Next day flight info
- Gulf of Mexico Waters Forecast - All of my NHC tropical pages can be accessed from here.
- Buoy Information - Click on Gulf of Mexico (west)
- Tropical Surface Maps
- Tropical Graphics
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